Canada First Mortgage

Don’t count on it. For the Bank of Canada to raise rates before the middle part of 2011 would be totally inconsistent with its current forecast

David Rosenberg Published on Wednesday, Jan. 27, 2010

David Rosenberg is chief strategist for Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc. and a guest columnist for Report on Business

Canadian market watchers will get some good news this week. The predictions for a “blowout” reading on fourth-quarter GDP are already out there and it is likely to be an abnormally strong number. But for anyone who thinks a big number is likely to help lock in a rate hike this summer, I would suggest that is not going to happen. In fact, my view is that the Bank of Canada will not be raising rates until mid-2011 - at the earliest.

This is critical to the outlook for Canadian money market and bond yields since futures have priced in nearly 100 per cent odds of a 25 basis point rate hike this June, and another 25 basis points by September. (A basis point is 1/100th of a percentage point.) The central bank has already told us that its base case is for 2.9 per cent real GDP growth this year and 3.5 per cent next year, with the starting point on the “output gap” being 3.7 per cent (”output gap” is the gap between the actual level of real GDP and where real GDP would be if the economy were at full capacity). Remember that an output gap that big in any given quarter classifies as a 1-in-20 event. Moreover, baselining these expected growth rates against the latest estimates of potential growth puts the output gap at a smaller level of 1.55 per cent this year, narrowing further to 0.25 per cent in 2011.

The history of the Bank of Canada is such that - outside of when it had to defend the Canadian dollar - it typically does not embark on its tightening phase until the output gap is close to closing. Even during the aggressive John Crow era, the bank’s modus operandi was to time the first rate hike just as spare capacity was being eliminated, and not much before. On average, the first central bank rate hike following a recession takes place one quarter before the output gap closes (there is still a gap, but it is small at 20 basis points). If such a strategy is replicated this time around - and the cause for being on pause longer in the context of a historic deleveraging cycle is certainly quite strong - then the very earliest the bank will move is the second quarter of 2011.

Under this scenario, based on some back-of-the envelope calculations I just did, the unemployment rate at no time declines below 7.5 per cent through to the end of 2011. The peak in the jobless rate was 8.7 per cent in August, 2009. Going back to prior recessions, the central bank does not begin to tighten rates until the jobless rate is down an average of 150 basis points with a range of 130 basis points to 170 basis points.

Unless the bank wants to be pre-emptive - highly unlikely when it acknowledges in its economic outlook last week that “the recovery continues to depend on exceptional monetary and fiscal stimulus” and that “the overall risks to its inflation projection are tilted slightly to the downside” - then to raise rates before the middle part of 2011 would be totally inconsistent with its current forecast. More to the point, while bored Bay Street economists analyze every word to see if the bank is more or less “hawkish” than in its previous outlook, what is important for investors is to assess the bank forecast and decide what it means for the degree of excess capacity in the economy and what that implies for the future inflation rate.

The bottom line is that even with the fragile recovery, the bank sees more downside than upside risk to its inflation projection, and, to reiterate, for it to start tightening policy until the jobless rate falls below 7.5 per cent would be a break from past post-recession actions.

And whatever future “policy tightening” is needed could also come via the overextended loonie, limiting any need for an interest rate adjustment in the time horizon that the markets have discounted. This is a source of debate on Bay Street, but the bank is still sensitive to the growth-dampening impact of an exchange rate too firm for its own good. To wit: “The persistent strength of the Canadian dollar and the low absolute level of U.S. demand continue to act as significant drags on economic activity in Canada,” the bank says.

In a nutshell, the Canadian market is already braced for 50 basis points of tightening from the Bank of Canada by September. With that in mind, it is difficult to believe that there is any significant rate risk here; if anything, the surprise will be that the bank is on hold for longer. If that proves to be true, then there is actually more downside than upside potential to Canadian bond yields, particularly at the front end of the coupon curve.

The reason the markets think the bank may pull the trigger is because of this one sentence that shows up in every press statement: “Conditional on the outlook for inflation, the target overnight rate can be expected to remain at its current level until the end of the second quarter of 2010 in order to achieve the inflation target.”

So the central bank has really only given a pledge to keep rates where they are until mid-year. But June is only five months away and so one would have to think that at one of the next three meetings, the Bank is going to have to update this particular sentence or cut it entirely and leave the market without a de facto time commitment. Either way, the moment the bank changes this sentence is the moment the market will put on hold its expectations of a new rate-hiking cycle coming our way.

Until then, homeowners opting for variable rate mortgage financing will likely not have to face the interest rate music.

Roma Luciw  Globe and Mail

With the Jan. 31 deadline just around the corner, anyone who still wants to take advantage of the federal government’s popular home renovation tax credit had better hurry.

“The most important thing for people to know is that they still have a week to buy and take delivery of materials that they are thinking of using for renovations,” Jamie Golombek, managing director of estate and tax planning with CIBC Private Wealth Management, said in an interview Wednesday.

Although it is likely too late to get the labour done in time, “anyone thinking of doing anything in their home in the next few months should try to get that material now… otherwise you are really losing out.”

The home reno tax credit, introduced as a limited-time program in the 2009 federal budget, has proven extremely popular with housing-obsessed Canadians. “Anecdotally, it is the topic of almost every single presentation I give in terms of personal tax. The Canada Revenue Agency has responded to more technical interpretation questions in terms of what qualifies and what does not than any other topic in recent history,” Mr. Golombek added

“ Anecdotally, it is the topic of almost every single presentation I give in terms of personal tax. ”— CIBC’s Jamie Golombek said of the HRTC

The CRA estimates that as of last Friday, more than four million Canadians had enquired about the program. From Jan. 2 to 15 alone, 302,501 people visited the CRA website or phoned to ask about the HRTC.

Timing has played a role in the HRTC’s success, says Mr. Golombek, given that rates for home equity lines of credit are still historically low. “Even if people don’t have the actual cash to do the renos right now, they can borrow the money at very attractive interest rates and get a 15-per-cent non-refundable credit from the government.”

Here’s how the HRTC works:

Each family is allowed to claim on their 2009 income tax return a 15-per-cent non-refundable tax credit for eligible renovation expenses made to their dwelling. The credit allows tax payers to get up to $1,350 in tax relief for projects worth between $1,000 and $10,000. The $10,000 spending limit applies to homes, cottages or condos, provided the combined total does not exceed the $1,350 limit.

To qualify, all of the renos must take place after Jan. 27, 2009 and before Feb. 1, 2010. The supplies and materials must be bought and in your possession before Feb. 1st, 2010 to be eligible. Likewise, any work done by a contractor must be finished by the deadline, which means that signing a contract for the work ahead of the deadline is not sufficient.

To qualify for the HRTC, renos must be of “an enduring nature and integral to the dwelling.” So putting in a permanent swimming pool or hot tub, a new dock or septic system at the cottage, fixing a retaining wall or doing some landscaping all qualify. Cleaning your carpet, house or eavestrough would not qualify, nor does buying furniture, appliances or electronics.

Who’s using it?

Dan Wilson is one many Canadians taking advantage of the credit. He and his neighbour spent most of the fall rebuilding the front porch on their east-end Toronto semi. He also had a contractor fix a flat roof in his backyard, put in a new deck, installed two fireplaces and painted.

“I spent at least three times the limit for the tax credit,” said the 45-year-old Ontario government worker. “I think almost everyone on my street had something done to take advantage of it.”

Robert Katzer had a contractor redo both bathrooms in his Victoria condo, putting in marble sinks and faucets, along with a new bathtub with marble wall linings. Not done there, he upgraded most of the lighting in the unit, replaced the carpets, painted, caulked the windows and retiled the fireplace. “It wasn’t cheap but I love the end result,” he said.

Across Canada, the tax credit seems to have provided the push many Canadians needed to get those home reno projects going.

Mr. Wilson says he might have taken care of the renos in the next year or two, but the tax credit prompted him to do it now. “I love this credit. The prospect of getting $1,350 back is just so appealing. If it were continued next year, I would definitely consider re-doing my kitchen next year.”

How long will it last?

Contractors and home renovation retailers would also like to see the tax measure extended, arguing that it would continue to boost the economy and allow the recovery to fully take hold.

But Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said this week the measure was “not inexpensive” and the government’s plan is to let it expire at month’s end. He also ruled out any kind of extension back in December, when he said: “Well, that’s our plan to end it at the end of January, yes.”

RBC Dominion Securities Inc. chartered accountant and certified financial planner Suzanne Schultz says the credit, which was part of the conservative government’s stimulus plan, has been successful. “The point of this was to get the economy going and it seems to have done that. People are spending, retailers and contractors are saying they are busy.”

She says people who bought materials in order to qualify for the home renovation tax credit but ran out of time to get the work done before next week’s expiry date will likely keep contractors busy for the first part of 2010. After that, however, she expects to see a lull.

Ms. Schultz urged people to get out and make their purchases before the Jan. 31st deadline. “Make a list of what you need done and get shopping. This is not common, for the federal government to introduce short-term tax measurers like this.”

CALGARY - Affordability and low interest rates will drive modest growth in sales and prices of resale homes in Calgary this year, the Calgary Real Estate Board predicts in its 2010 forecast report released Wednesday morning.

The board followed the lead of several Calgary economists in predicting only a continuation of the gradual recovery experienced in the second half of 2009.

“MLS sales are seasonal, so we anticipate seeing higher year-over-year monthly sales in the beginning of 2010, mainly as a result of the low levels of sales experienced in the first quarter of 2009,” said Diane Scott, the new president of CREB., who takes over from Bonnie Wegerich.

“New housing starts are also expected to be relatively high in comparison to a very weak first quarter of 2009,” she said in a news release.

The report estimates single-family home sales will climb to 17,000 from 14,440 in 2009 and 7,000 condominium units will change hands, versus 6,328 last year.

In 2007, single-family sales in Calgary metro added up to 18,438 and there were 8,236 condos sold. In 2008, the numbers were 13,455 and 5,661, respectively, with the single-family number the lowest since 1996.

The board predicts the average price for a single-family home in Calgary in 2009 will jump six per cent to $470,000 from $442,327 last year and the average condo price will rise 4.3 per cent to $296,000 from $283,734 in 2009.

The average single-family home price peaked at $505,920 in July 2007 and condo prices hit a record $332,237 in May 2007.

The board said the downtown apartment condo market will be particularly slow this year and that smaller single-family homes and lower priced segments will lead in sales and price growth.

“Single-family resale prices will again outpace condos in 2010, as equity gains from pre-2006 will enable move-up buyers to afford more,” said Scott. “Consequently, the gap between single-family homes and condominium prices will continue to widen in the short term.”

© Copyright (c) The Calgary Herald

8.5% unemployed

Paul Vieira, Financial Post 

OTTAWA - Financial markets were dealt a reality check yesterday with disappointing December jobs data from Canada and, more notably, the United States signalling an uneven and choppy recovery, and prompting U.S. analysts to scale back expectations on rate hikes.

Analysts noted, however, that an improving trend is definitely emerging in both countries. Furthermore, some reckon unemployment levels in Canada may have peaked.

Statistics Canada said the economy lost 2,600 jobs last month, but the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 8.5%. Markets expected 20,000 new jobs in December, after an off-the-chart 79,000 gain in November.

“It’s looking more believable by the day that the 8.7% jobless rate in August will mark the peak for the cycle, far below past recession highs — 13% in 1982 and 12.1% in 1992 — and no worse than the average unemployment rate in Canada over the past 30 years,” said Douglas Porter, deputy chief economist at BMO Capital Markets.

Stewart Hall, economist at HSBC Securities Canada, said there was “palatable” disappointment given the big gain in November. But the fact the economy held onto most of those jobs “is in and of itself fairly significant,” he said.

With the December figures in hand, they suggest the Canadian economy shed 240,000 jobs in 2009 — the bulk of which occurred in the first half of the year. In the last five months of the year, the economy generated an average of 20,000 new jobs per month.

Mr. Hall said average monthly gains of 20,000 are likely in the offing, as this recovery is likely to mirror the one following the recession of the early 1990s. “One characterized by some jobs growth followed by consolidation. Not terrific, but infinitely preferable to the experience of the previous year.”

The Canadian recession ended in the third quarter with meagre annualized growth of 0.4%, as domestic strength was offset by a weak export sector that was hampered by a strong Canadian dollar and weak U.S. demand. Economists estimate growth in the final three months of 2009 to register between 3% and 4%.

The Bank of Canada is expected to begin raising its benchmark lending rate in the third quarter. There is less confidence about near-term tightening from the U.S. Federal Reserve Board.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said non-farm employment in December fell 85,000, compared to expectations for no change. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 10%, although analysts note it was due to a plunge in the labour force, as people stopped looking for work.

“Firms are still bent on boosting productivity and remain cautious about hiring,” analysts from London-based Capital Economics said of the U.S. data.

The yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury note — a market gauge of interest rate expectations — dropped yesterday below 1%, indicating analysts believe the likelihood of a Fed rate hike has been “pushed out for a few more months,” Ajay Rajadhyaksha, head of U.S. fixed-income strategy at Barclays PLC in New York, told Bloomberg News.

The U.S. bureau noted, however, that during 2009 monthly job losses moderated, from an average 691,000 in the first quarter to 69,000 in the fourth quarter. Also, the bureau revised data for November indicating the U.S. economy created 4,000 jobs — the first monthly gain in more than two years.

Still, Avery Shenfeld, chief economist at CIBC World Markets, said the 10% U.S. jobless rate masks the “true extent” of labour slack, “as it ignores those working part-time involuntarily [and] those who gave up looking for work.”

As a result, the Fed is unlikely to raise rates for some time.

David Paddon, THE CANADIAN PRESS
TORONTO - Canada’s residential real estate market is expected to remain unusually strong through the first half of this year after a strong finish to 2009, according to a survey published Thursday by Royal LePage.

The Royal LePage analysis is consistent with other recent reports on the state of the Canadian real estate market, which has rebounded over the past 12 months after sales dried up in late 2008 and hit a multi-year low in January 2009.

The Canadian market’s sudden plunge was sparked by a credit crunch that originated in the U.S. housing and lending industries - eventually spreading globally, causing a worldwide recession in the late summer and early fall of 2009.

However, the Canadian real estate market has been much quicker to recover than its American counterpart, in part because of a more stable banking industry, historically low interest rates and improving consumer confidence.

Royal LePage executive Phil Soper says Canada’s real estate market enters 2010 with “considerable momentum from an unusually strong finish to the previous year.”

The stimulus effect of low borrowing costs has contributed to a sharp rise in demand that has driven activity to new highs, he said in a statement.

Royal LePage says house prices appreciated in late 2009, with fourth-quarter price averages higher than in the fourth quarter of 2008.

The average price of detached bungalows rose to $315,055 (up six per cent), the price of a standard two-storey home rose to $353,026 (up 5.2 per cent), and the price of a standard condominium rose to $205,756 (up 6.4 per cent).

Regions that saw the strongest declines during the recession are now showing marked gains. Those regions include Toronto and the Lower Mainland, B.C.

Vancouver, which is frequently Canada’s most expensive real estate market, experienced a particularly robust quarter, with home prices rising across all housing types surveyed.

“No other sector of the economy has been as highly affected by economic stimulus as housing,” said Soper.

“As consumer confidence has improved, Canadians have shown a lingering reluctance to acquire depreciating assets such as consumer durables, but have embraced the opportunity to invest in real property.”

Royal LePage estimates that Vancouver’s real estate prices will rise a further 7.2 per cent this year, although February may be soft because of the Olympic Winter Games that will be held in the city and nearby Whistler, B.C.

Detached bungalows in Vancouver sold for an average of $828,750 in the fourth quarter, up 11.4 per cent from the same period last year. Standard condominiums in Vancouver went up 11.8 per cent year-over-year to an average of $452,750. Prices of standard two-storey homes in Vancouver rose 9.6 per cent year-over-year, selling at $917,500.

In Toronto, the average price of a standard condo rose 2.9 per cent to $309,316, detached bungalows rose 9.9 per cent to $446,214 and standard detached homes increased 3.5 per cent to $564,175.

In Montreal, the average price of a detached bungalow rose to $245,125 (up 3.1 per cent; a condo increased to $216,667 (up 16 per cent) and a two-storey house increased 12.3 per cent from a year earlier to $345,789, Royal LePage said.

The Greater Montreal Real Estate Board reported Thursday that the number of sales last year increased 41,802, up three per cent from 2008. The median price of a single-family home was $235,000 last year, up four per cent from 2008.

“Although sales decreased the first four months of 2009, Montreal’s real estate market rebounded and finished the year on a positive note,” said Michel Beausejour, the Montreal board’s chief executive.

The group that represents Toronto-area realtors reported Wednesday that there were 87,308 transactions last year through the Multiple Listing Service, a 17 per cent increase over 2008.

In December, there were 5,541 sales in the Greater Toronto Area (average price $411,931), up from 2,577 sales in December 2008 (average price $361,415), according to the Toronto Real Estate Board.

The Toronto board also said the number of sales of existing homes rebounded in the latter half of 2009 after a slow start at the beginning of last year.

Royal LePage’s average price estimates for other Canadian cities include:

-St. John’s, N.L.: Detached bungalow, $217,167 (up 14.3 per cent); standard two-storey house $298,833 (up 14.1 per cent).

-Halifax: Detached bungalow, $238,000 (up 10.7 per cent); standard two-storey homes, $265,333 (up 1.8 per cent).

-Charlottetown: Detached bungalow, $160,000 (up 1.9 per cent); standard two-storey $195,000 (up 3.7 per cent).

-Saint John, N.B.: Detached bungalow, $228,000 (up 1.3 per cent); standard two-storey $299,000 (up 1.5 per cent).

-Moncton, N.B.: Detached bungalow, $152,300 in the fourth quarter (up 1.5 per cent); standard two-storey home, $131,000 (up 4.0 per cent)

-Fredericton: Detached bungalow, $182,000 (up 12.3 per cent); standard two-storey, $210,000 (unchanged).

-Ottawa: Detached bungalow, $332,417 (up 3.4 per cent); standard two-story home $331,917 (up 3.7 per cent).

-Winnipeg: Detached bungalow, $241,650 (up 9.9 per cent); standard two-storey home $275,500 (up 10 per cent).

-Edmonton: Detached bungalow, $299,286 (down 0.7 per cent); standard two-storey home, $340,557 (down 1.2 per cent)

-Calgary: Detached bungalow, $412,478 (up 0.5 per cent); standard two-storey home, $427,067 (up 2.3 per cent).

 Financial Post

OTTAWA — Canadian job growth stalled in December, with the economy shedding 2,600 jobs and the unemployment rate remaining at 8.5%, Statistics Canada said Friday.

“In the last nine months, employment has stabilized but remains 323,000 (down 1.9%) below the October 2008 peak,” the federal agency said.

“In December, there were a number of offsetting changes by industry. Employment rose in health care and social assistance, as well as in professional, scientific and technical services. The largest declines were in transportation and warehousing; business, building and other support services; and public administration,” it said.

Most economists had forecast job growth of 20,000 in December, although they expected the unemployment rate to be unchanged.

Last month’s decline followed a hefty 79,000 increase in jobs in November.

Vincent Ferrao, Statistics Canada’s labour force analyst, said “this increase held in December.” However, he said employment for women aged 25 to 54, who make up much of the workforce in the finance, insurance, real estate and public administration sectors, declined by 24,000 last month.

Still, Statistics Canada characterizes the December number as “unchanged” because the overall 2,600 loss “is not a statistically significant number,” said Ferrao, adding that the employment market now shows a “stable trend.”

Douglas Porter, deputy chief economist at BMO Capital Markets, said that “while a tad disappointing, today’s jobs report hardly represents a serious challenge to the recovery picture. After all, it only offsets a tiny fraction of the prior month’s massive gain.”

“Still, it does show that the recovery will be uneven, with overall growth likely to pale compared with past recoveries,” he said.

The surprisingly weak job report comes despite signs of economic recovery in Canada.

The economy edged up 0.4% in the third quarter of last year, marking the official end to a recession that lasted for three consecutive quarters.

The Bank of Canada, which cut its key lending rate to a record low 0.25% to spur spending, is now forecasting 3.3% expansion in the final three months of 2009 and three% growth in 2010.

Millan Mulraine, economics strategist at TD Securities, said “it is clear that the pace of job creation is fairly consistent with the stage of the Canadian economic recovery. And with the Canadian economy appearing to be slowing pulling itself of the recession, we expect employment growth in the coming months to remain in a similar range.”

Canwest News Service

Roma Luciw Globe and Mail

More Canadians are heeding the interest-rate warnings and focusing on curbing their debt loads in 2010.

A Manulife Financial poll released Tuesday found that paying down credit cards and lines of credit is growing as a financial priority among Canadians. In fact, more than a quarter, 28 per cent, pegged debt elimination as their main goal, up from 24 per cent in 2009 and a five-year high.

The results come at a time when households are tackling post-Christmas credit card bills and struggling with record debt, both mortgage and consumer. With interest rate hikes on the horizon, Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney last month cautioned Canadians against taking on more debt than they can handle.

Despite this red flag, Canadians dug deeper this December, with spending in the holiday period rising 3.44 per cent in volume over the previous year, according to Moneris Solutions, which processes credit, debit and online payments.

The central bank estimates there was nearly $1.4-trillion in total household credit outstanding in October, the most recent data available, up from $1.3-trillion a year earlier. Much of the growth stems from mortgage debt, which stood at roughly $950-billion in October, compared with less than $890-billion a year earlier.

The Manulife national survey of 1,000 people, conducted last month by Research House, found that the second most-cited financial priority among Canadians was paying down the mortgage. It was chosen by 14 per cent of respondents, up from 11 per cent last year.

The third priority – saving for retirement – was listed by 11 per cent of those polled, down from 14 per cent a year ago.

“Paying down debts is understandably a priority, particularly at this time of year,” Paul Rooney, chief executive officer of Manulife Manulife Canada, said in a news release. “Given the economic challenges in 2009, we shouldn’t be surprised to see more Canadians focused on ensuring their financial house is in order.”

Only 5 per cent of respondents listed saving for a child’s education, through a tool like a registered education savings plan, and saving for purchasing a home, as financial priorities, on par with last year’s results.