Calgary inflation rate lower than rest of Canada

Financial Update

Consumer prices up 0.5 per cent

Consumer prices rose at a slower rate in the Calgary census metropolitan area in August than they did in Alberta and nationally.

Statistics Canada reported today that prices were up 0.5 per cent in Calgary in the 12 months to August. Provincially they increased 0.6 per cent and across Canada they were up 1.7 per cent on an annual basis.

On a monthly basis, Calgary CMA and Alberta saw consumer prices decline by 0.5 per cent from July while they fell 0.1 per cent in Canada.

Overall in Canada, energy prices rose 5.0 per cent between August 2009 and August 2010, following a 7.9 per cent increase during the 12-month period to July. Excluding energy, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was up 1.4 per cent in August, said the federal agency.

Higher consumer prices were also recorded in August for homeowner’s replacement costs (5.5 per cent), passenger vehicle insurance premiums (5.1 per cent) and food purchased from restaurants (2.5 per cent), said Statistics Canada.

Prices increased in seven of the eight major components of the CPI in the 12 months to August; the only exception was clothing and footwear.

Shelter costs rose 2.4 per cent in August compared with the same month last year.

Transportation costs went up 2.0 per cent in the 12 months to August after rising 2.7 per cent in July. Gasoline prices rose 1.9 per cent during the 12-month period to August, after posting a 4.8 per cent increase in July.

Food prices advanced 1.6 per cent, after increasing 1.1 per cent in July.

Prices in the household operations, furnishings and equipment component were up 1.9 per cent in August compared with the same month last year.

In the health and personal care component, prices rose 3.5 per cent, added Statistics Canada.

Prices in the recreation, education and reading component rose 0.6 per cent.

Consumers paid 2.2 per cent less for clothing and footwear in August than they did a year earlier.

The Bank of Canada’s core index advanced 1.6 per cents in the 12 months to August, matching the rate of growth recorded in July. The seasonally adjusted monthly core index posted no change in August, following a 0.1 per cent increase in July.

mtoneguzzi@theherald.canwest.com

Read more: http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/Calgary+inflation+rate+lower+than+rest+Canada/3555102/story.html#ixzz10B7EPaj8

Tentative evidence allays fears of second recession

Financial Update

BY JULIAN BELTRAME
OTTAWA — After a summer of discontent for the economy, September indicators so far are helping to allay fears of a coming second recession.

Encouraging signals from China in the past few weeks, a rebound in commodity prices and equity markets, and better data in North America have reduced the risk of a second downturn, analysts say.

In response, New York’s Dow Jones industrial average has advanced about five per cent so far this month, while in Toronto, equities are up more than two per cent.

Markets also reacted this week like they dodged a bullet over new Basel III rules to increase capital reserves for banks, since it gives commercial banks eight years to build up to standard.

The evidence that the danger of a double dip has passed is still not strong. Indicators from manufacturing to sales to production output continue to be weak, and employment gains remain modest, particularly in the United States.

Canada has seen the torrid pace of job creation slow from about 51,000 a month for the first half of the year, to an average of 13,000 in July and August.

But in a welcome reversal of recent months, the latest trend is for data to be stronger than economists forecast.

“The markets a few weeks ago were pricing in an elevated risk of a recession, now some of those fears have abated in light of more positive data,” said Bank of Montreal economist Sal Guatieri.

“If you are looking for a strong recovery the news is still bad, but if you were afraid of a double dip, it’s been good news.”

In an interview with Reuters, Secretary-General Angel Gurria of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development said his Paris-based organization was ruling out the possibility of a new global recession in advanced economies, with the possible exception of Japan.

“We are saying yes there is a slowdown in the recovery, not a double dip recession, just a slowdown in the recovery,” Gurria is quoted as saying.

Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney, meeting with reporters after a speech in Germany, said Canadian growth will be slower than the 2.8 per cent advance the bank predicted in July, but will still be positive.

The economy greatly disappointed in the second quarter, slowing to two per cent growth after a 4.9 per cent gain in the fourth quarter of 2009 and an even bigger 5.8 per cent pick up in the first three months of 2010.

“We expect the recovery in Canada to be more gradual than we had projected in July, but we’re talking about slowing from . . . what the projection was,” he said.

The governor’s remark left open the possibility that third-quarter growth will outpace two per cent.

Tuesday saw fresh evidence that the economies in both Canada and the U.S. are moving forward — albeit at crawling pace.

The most important of those was a larger than expected 0.4 per cent growth in retail sales in the U.S. last month, the best advance since March. But for a decline in the auto component, sales rose 0.6 per cent, double the collective forecast of analysts.

U.S. retail sales are a key indicator for the Canadian economy because higher consumer spending south of the border often directly translates into greater demand for Canadian exports.

Canada’s economy also got some good news Tuesday with a report that industrial capacity utilization rose slightly higher than projected to 76 per cent in the second quarter, the fourth consecutive gain.

The growth was broadly based and included an improvement in the battered manufacturing sector, with primary metals and electrical equipment leading the way.

The labour productivity of Canadian businesses fell 0.8 per cent in the same period, but there was some good news in that indicator as well because it related to the strong improvement in hiring, and an increase in hours worked.

Carney told reporters the Bank of Canada will have a new outlook for the economy in October.

The Canadian Press http://news.therecord.com/article/775503

Debt-laden consumers take the wind out of recovery’s sails

Financial Update

Now more than ever it’s time to work closer with professionals who specialize in their fields.  No longer do we rely on one company to look after an array of needs.  No.  When it comes to financial decisions, more and more people are doing their homework online before they even talk to their own bank.  Statistically speaking, the majority of consumers are now contacting 2 to 3 companies before they make a decision.

When you consider the below message - is it not overdue that we consider isolating our financial game plan and dealing with professionals in the their respective fields?  When it comes to mortgages, the banks have a specific agenda:  SELL THEIR PRODUCT.  Great.  So as a consumer, why is this in my best interest?

The right advice needs the right product to the solution.  Better yet, impartial advice needs an array of innovative products to your solutions.

___________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Toronto and Vancouver —Globe and Mail

Canadian consumers are about to rein in their spending, cutting off some of the blood flowing to the economic recovery.

Tapped out and debt-burdened, with net worth slipping, the all-important shopper will have to juggle the budget to allocate more to repayment and less to discretionary spending as borrowing costs rise. The expected pullback comes in a key selling season for retailers in the run-up to Christmas.

Consumer spending, on everything from cars and coffee to furniture and clothes, makes up about two-thirds of the economy, and a slowdown in growth would hamper the economic rebound.

While U.S. consumers have adjusted their habits since the recession – saving more, and curbing credit-card debt – Canadians’ appetite hasn’t diminished, perhaps because the economic shock wasn’t as great. The ratio of household debt to net worth is the highest on record, Statistics Canada said Monday, as tumbling stock markets eroded household net worth in the second quarter, while liabilities rose thanks to more mortgage and consumer credit debt.

“It’s a worry,” said Benjamin Tal, deputy chief economist at CIBC World Markets. “Consumer spending will be positive, but it will be nowhere near where it was before.”

Rising borrowing costs – the Bank of Canada has already hiked its benchmark rate three times recently – will force Canadians to put more money into servicing debt and “for the next five years, consumers won’t be as strong or powerful as in the past.”

“Weak asset growth in combination with still strong liability growth will likely have households feeling buried under more debt than they ever have,” said Toronto-Dominion Bank economist Diana Petramala. “Households will likely feel a need to constrain spending and repair the damage done to their balance sheets. As such, quarterly consumer spending growth is expected to remain in a range of 2-2.5 per cent over the next year, well below the 3.5-4 per cent growth registered over the last five years.”

Ballooning debt levels leave many Canadians vulnerable to financial shocks, the OECD noted Monday. National surveys back that up – six in 10 Canadian workers are surviving from paycheque to paycheque, a proportion that hasn’t improved since the recession ended, one survey found Monday.

Debt also means overextended consumers will be far less of a contributor to the recovery than they were before the recession.

http://beta.images.theglobeandmail.com/archive/00878/consumer_debt_gr_878562artw.jpg

As statistics point to a recovery, personal struggles are worsening, even compared with last year’s recession, said Scott Hannah, president of the Credit Counselling Society in the Vancouver suburb of New Westminster, with six other offices in Western Canada.

In 2008, the service had about 7,000 new clients, which spiked roughly 50 per cent to 10,000 in 2009. This year, it is up another 5 per cent – and the pace of increase is rising, with 11 per cent more clients last month compared with August, 2009.

“A lot of people thought 2010 was a better year and things were getting better. We’re not seeing it,” Mr. Hannah said. “This year it’s consumers who have been fighting debt for a long time and haven’t made any headway.”

For credit cards alone, the average client arrives with $35,000 in debt on six different cards.

Mr. Hannah cites several factors, including credit-card companies that have slowly reduced the required minimum payments – allowing people to dig deeper holes – and a general lack of savings among Canadians.

“The only thing in many savings accounts is cobwebs.”

Laurie Campbell, executive director at Toronto-based Credit Canada, is seeing a similar trend. Her agency is seeing more recent grads seek help, loaded with student and credit card debt, who haven’t been able to secure full-time work. Older people with fixed incomes are also frequent clients – partly because many are now supporting those recent grads.

Reasons range for the debt explosion, to a rush to buy houses in a low interest-rate environment, to a generational shift away from saving. Some peg it to a lack of financial literacy, others to banks too willing to lend. Middle-class incomes haven’t kept up with the cost of living in the past few decades, and in the past year, much of the job growth has been in part-time positions.

Meanwhile, balancing the household budget is still a long way off, Ms. Campbell said. “As Canadians, we need to find some sustainable middle ground between spending, debt, consumerism and financial stability. Have we found it? Absolutely not.”

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/debt-laden-consumers-take-the-wind-out-of-recoverys-sails/article1706114/

One in five Calgary companies plan on hiring: Economists

Financial Update

Calgary job seekers could close the year on a happier note, with one in five Calgary companies planning to hire within the next three months, a sign the city’s economy is stabilizing after a rocky patch, economists say.

“It’s all very positive news,” said Randy Upright, CEO of Manpower’s Alberta region, adding only four per cent of employers expect to cut back their labour force between October and December.

He added that the numbers show a “more conservative kind of survey” than those seen during boom times.

As well, the number looking to add employees is double what it was in the same period last year, when only 11 per cent were in that position.

And it’s an eight percentage point increase over July to September when 15 per cent planned to hire.

With 71 per cent anticipating the status quo until the end of the year, “there’s a continuing sense of stability overall,” said Upright. “That’s what we’re really happy about.”

In 2009, hiring intentions in Calgary sank to their lowest levels in 15 years.

Todd Hirsch, senior economist with ATB Financial, speaking generally about Calgary’s economy, said stable is good after a couple years of volatility.

“The phrase I’ve been using lately is sunny with a chance of showers,” he said to describe the situation in the city.

With some uncertainty still in the air, Hirsch said employers aren’t rushing to add staff they may have to lay off should things take a turn.

Citing fluctuating oil prices and the low price of natural gas, “it’s enough to rattle people,” he said.

Manpower Canada’s employment outlook survey released today, which includes 1,900 employers across the country, found 23 per cent in Calgary are looking to hire, compared with 21 per cent nationally. Across Canada, the number planning to cut jobs was seven per cent, with both figures are better than during the same period last year.

Manpower said it’s the strongest national outlook in almost two years.

A Robert Half International employment report, which canvassed more than 1,000 executives in Canada about their hiring at the professional level, found a net 10 per cent plan to add jobs, a two percentage point increase over the previous three months.

Calgary has seen its unemployment rate start to decline, hitting 6.9 per cent in July, down from 7.5 per cent in June.

Hirsch said it looks worse than it is because Calgarians have been used to a rate of about three per cent.

However, while the province added 9,000 jobs in July, on top of 5,700 added in June, all those were attributed to the creation of part-time positions and in both months there was a decrease in full-time jobs.

In July, Canada added 129,700 part-time jobs but lost 139,000 full-time positions.

According to the Manpower Canada survey, the most optimism for job creation was seen in the mining and manufacturing-durable goods sectors, the best in a decade.

On Friday, the United States reported job gains of 67,000 in the private sector, which was better than expected, with the economy losing 54,000 jobs overall — better than the 120,000 predicted.

kguttormson@theherald.canwest.com

Read more: http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/five+Calgary+companies+plan+hiring+Economists/3488156/story.html#ixzz0yrLqghgJ

 

DAN MASS, Mortgage Broker
193 McKenzie Towne Gate SE
Calgary, Alberta, Canada  T2Z 4G2
direct: 403.294.0033  toll free: 1-888-894-0033
cell:
403.710.1505 fax: 1-866-902-4910
email: dan@canadafirstmortgage.com

STACEY MASS, Mortgage Agent
193 McKenzie Towne Gate SE
Calgary, Alberta, Canada  T2Z 4G2
direct:
403.294.0033 toll free: 1-888-894-0033
fax: 1-866-902-4910
email: stacey@canadafirstmortgage.com

 
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